DYM – Market Research

Feijóo would be the most voted leader and would aspire to add an absolute majority together with Abascal.
The left would lose 19 seats in the best scenario and would find it very difficult to continue governing.

The PP would win the general elections if they were held today and, in the most favorable scenario for the right, could govern with the support of Vox. This is reflected in the survey prepared by DYM for 20minutos, which estimates that the party led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo would obtain 28.4% of the votes and between 118 and 121 seats, which, added to the 53 to 57 that Vox would obtain (with 16% of the ballots), would allow it to reach 178 seats, two above the absolute majority.

On the opposite side of the political spectrum, the May barometer -whose fieldwork was carried out between the 11th and 13th of this month and already includes the effects of events such as the Pegasus case- consolidates the trend already started in April. The survey estimates that, in a general election, the PSOE could only be the second force with 26.3% of the votes and between 103 and 108 deputies, while United Podemos would be in fourth place with 11.5% of the votes and between 24 and 27 deputies. Más País would complete the bloc with two or three seats.

This means that, in the best forecast for them, the three progressive parties of national implantation would only add 138 seats, 19 less than at present, and they would have a very difficult time governing even if PP, Vox and Cs (which would obtain one or two seats) did not obtain an absolute majority. To do so, they would need the unwavering support of practically all the rest of the small regionalist, nationalist and pro-independence formations.

The good moment that the PP is living since the arrival of Feijóo’s leadership is reflected in the upward trend that, for the third consecutive month, leads it to improve its results: specifically, eight tenths of a point with respect to April. That is exactly the same percentage of vote estimation that Vox loses, which chains its third consecutive month down since the peak of 19.9% of vote estimation it obtained in February, as a result of the internal crisis in the PP that ended with the resignation of Pablo Casado as president of the party.

On the other hand, on the left, the transfers are more moderate: the PSOE obtains almost the same result as last month (two tenths less) and UNO Podemos grows half a point, from 11% to 11.5%. The Socialists have not been able to recover from the drop they suffered in April, although they remain in slightly higher vote estimate figures than those they had when the crisis broke out in the PP, while the purple parties are still far from the 13.2% they recorded in October.

A much more mobilized electorate

The fact that the right is doing significantly better in the barometer than the left can be explained, in large part, by the fact that its electorate is much more mobilized. This is reflected in the voting loyalty data. One more month, and as usual, Vox is the party that most effectively retains its electorate, since 87% of those who voted for it in 2019 say they would repeat. For its part, 80% of PP voters three years ago would now choose the Núñez Feijóo.

These data are clearly better than those of the left, where an important part of the electorate is not loyal to the party they voted for in 2019. In this sense, only 68% of PSOE voters say they would vote socialist again, and the figure for United Podemos is even worse: only 63% would choose the purple ballot again. This means that, if the elections were held today, purple and socialists would only have confirmed the support of two out of three of their voters from the last elections.

However, who experiences a real bloodletting is Cs, which only retains 36 out of every 100 of its 2019 voters. In fact, 22.6% of those who chose the orange ballot would now vote for the PP, and another 24.3% say they do not know how they will vote or do not want to answer the question. The PP would also receive an important transfer of socialist voters: specifically, 10.3% of those who voted for Pedro Sánchez now say they would opt for Feijóo.