DYM – Market Research

Vox continues to grow steadily amid the turbulent political climate. The September barometer prepared by DYM for 20minutos shows that, if elections were held tomorrow, the PP would remain the leading party, as polls have been showing for months. However, the PP’s lead over the PSOE has narrowed over the summer, both due to a slight upturn for the Socialists — who are the leading force for the first time in many months in direct voting intention, i.e. without manipulation — and a decline for the PP itself, whose losses to Vox now stand at 900,000 voters. Feijóo would be far from being able to govern alone and would need Santiago Abascal’s party to reach the Moncloa.

According to the barometer, Vox’s sustained growth — it has gained 3.7 points in voting estimates since March — allows it to reach almost 16%, which would be its best result ever. If these figures do not translate into a range greater than the 42 to 44 seats predicted by the poll (Vox won 52 seats in 2019 with 15% of the vote), it is because of the strength of Feijóo who, despite having lost almost a point during the summer, holds on with an estimated 35.2% of the vote. Its 150 to 154 MPs, together with Vox’s 44, would allow the right-wing bloc in Congress to comfortably exceed the absolute majority threshold of 176 seats.

The counterpoint to these good results and the sustained growth of the far right is the situation of Sumar, which has seen its second consecutive decline in the polls and obtained the worst result in its history: an estimated 5.6% of the vote and eight or nine seats. Since June, when it experienced a slight upturn that brought it to 7.6%, the candidacy led by Yolanda Díaz has lost two percentage points in voting estimates, a drop that Podemos has failed to capitalise on, remaining stagnant at around 4% (two or three seats) and gaining just two tenths of a point compared to July. The division is severely penalising both parties, despite the fact that the space to the left of the PSOE remains stable at around 10%.

On this occasion, unlike two months ago, the rise of the PSOE compensates for the sluggish performance of the parties to its left. The Socialists, after their sharp decline following the outbreak of the Cerdán case, have managed to begin rebuilding themselves and have gained eight tenths of a point in voting estimates over the summer, although their 26.9% is still far from the 28%/29% they had before the crisis and the 31.7% they achieved in 2023. The division on its left, however, would allow the PSOE to aspire to between 109 and 113 seats, a very small loss compared to the 120 it currently holds.

The Socialists’ rebound has a lot to do with the fact that, after many months of difficulties in this area, they have achieved a significant improvement in their voter loyalty. According to the barometer, 76% of those who voted for Pedro Sánchez in 2023 now say they would do so again, an improvement of no less than twelve percentage points in just two months. In addition to this, over the summer the PSOE has managed to reduce its loss of voters to the PP by more than half: now, only 4.6% would choose to vote for Alberto Núñez Feijóo, compared to 9.8% who would have done so in July.

The PSOE’s figures in this indicator of voter loyalty are, in fact, beginning to approach those of the PP, whose losses to Vox have caused it to lose some ground. Seventy-nine per cent of PP voters from two years ago would vote for the party again, a figure that remains high but represents a significant drop of five points compared to before the summer break. Abascal’s party, meanwhile, is once again the most loyal voters: no less than 88% would vote for them again. At the opposite end of the spectrum is Sumar: Yolanda Díaz retains only 43.7% of her 2023 voters, while almost 20% are going to Podemos and 11.5% do not know what they will do in the next elections.

Díaz, the highest rated

The ratings for the main political leaders are much more evenly matched, although none of them come close to passing. Yolanda Díaz regains her position as the leader most highly regarded by Spaniards in this month’s barometer, with an average score of 3.5 points out of 10. The previous holder of this position, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has lost two tenths of a point in two months and now stands at 3.4, the same average rating as President Pedro Sánchez, who has risen by almost half a point during the summer break after receiving his worst rating ever following the outbreak of the Cerdán case.

Santiago Abascal, for his part, has suffered a sharp drop in his rating after the surge a couple of months ago that put him in second place, and now receives an average rating of 2.8. The only national leader with a lower rating is Ione Belarra of Podemos, with 2.4. Abascal, however, is once again the political leader most highly regarded by his own voters, who give him an average rating of 7.6 out of 10. Díaz is given a 6.6 by Sumar voters, compared to the 6.4 average rating given to Feijóo by PP voters and the 6.1 given to Sánchez by PSOE voters. The president is therefore the national leader with the lowest rating among those who voted for him two years ago.

When asked which leader Spaniards would prefer to see as Prime Minister, there is a technical tie between Sánchez and Feijóo. 34.4% of those surveyed say that their favourite to reach the Moncloa is the PP leader, while 34.2% believe that it would be better for the PSOE secretary general to remain in the presidential palace. The remaining 31% show no preference for either leader.

TECHNICAL DATA SHEET

Sample and methodology: 1,016 random online interviews, applying specific quotas by gender, age, habitat, region and occupation. Error: the total margin of error is +/- 3.1% for a confidence level of 95.5% in the most unfavourable hypothesis. Target: Population aged 18 and over. Fieldwork: conducted between 10 and 15 September 2025.