DYM AND WIN / GIA WESTERN EUROPE SURVEY
Article created by El Confidencial_ 12-29-2016
If there were a second referendum in the United Kingdom, the option of maintaining ties with Brussels would gain by 54%. In Spain, support for continuity in the EU is 80%
The shock of the Brexit has partially removed the perception of European citizens. It has strengthened the desire for the Union of the main powers of the Old Continent to remain in the Union, even in the already pro European countries of Spain and Ireland. And even in the United Kingdom, the willingness to maintain ties with Brussels relieves those who prefer the disconnect, the position that won in the referendum last June narrowly, by 51.9% of the votes.
They are the main conclusions that emerge from the DYM Institute’s survey in conjunction with the Worldwide Independent Network of Market Research / Gallup International Association (WIN / GIA), in which they analyze Europeanist sentiment and belonging to Europe, based on 14,000 interviews , 1,000 of them in Spain, made between October 28 and November 6. The data are therefore part of the End of Year (EoY) study promoted by Gallup and has already 40 annual editions.
In Spain, if there were a referendum tomorrow, asking whether the country should stay in the European Union or abandon it, 80% would bet on the first option. An overwhelming support. Only 20% would prefer to leave the club. In the EU average, 64% would support permanence, with 36% who would opt for the march. That means that while in our country the difference between the supporters of continue in the Union and the defenders of abandonment is 60 points, in the Old Continent total the advantage is smaller, 28 points. The permanence in Spain would impose itself very firmly, but also in the whole of Europe
Ireland, like Spain
If we go into the detail of the 13 countries surveyed, we can observe the differences of criteria and citizen sentiment, although the alternative of permanence expires. In Ireland, for example, it happens as in Spain, where the desire to continue to belong to the EU is overwhelming, 80%. In both states, the ‘remain’ victory would therefore be 60 points, and both are the countries where that sentiment enjoys greater popular support.
In the next step are countries like Denmark and Germany, where the percentage of those who want to stay in the EU is 75%, compared to 25% who understand that the exit is better (the difference is, therefore, Of 50 points). Nearby are Belgium and Bulgaria, where the numbers of ‘remain’ supporters and ‘leave’ supporters are identical: 74% versus 26%: 48 points ahead.
Sweden, France and Austria occupy the most temperate area of the table. The percentage of support to stay ranges from 71% of the Nordic country to 67% of the Austrians. The triumph of the yes would be in the three cases very resounding: of 42 points in Sweden; Of 36 in France and 34 in the central European state.
In Finland and Italy the European enthusiasm is somewhat less. Defenders of permanence would add 60% of the votes, while 40% would prefer to leave the EU. The difference is 20 points.
The two countries in which the ‘remain’ victory would be fairer are Greece and the United Kingdom. In both, 54% of its citizens are in favor of continuing in the Union, by 46% that grabs the ‘leave’.
Eight hit points in a year
The evolution of the United Kingdom is significant. In the End of Year survey in 2015, the Brexit triumph was already visible: 54% supported the EU exit, compared to 46% in favor of permanence. Now, the result is just the opposite. The ‘remain’ option, in the event of a second referendum, gains eight hit points. A reversal that marries the impact that produced in the country the victory by the minimum (51.9% against 48.1%) of the break with Brussels.
Not only in Britain has increased support to continue in the EU. This development has taken place in most countries. Thus, the percentage of support has gone from 78% to 80% in Ireland, from 79% to 80% in Spain, from 72% to 75% in Germany, from 65% to 68% in France, or from 58% to 60% % in Italy.
The leap has been much greater in other nations. In Denmark, 61% were in favor of staying in 2015. Now, 75% is in that thesis. In Belgium, 67% of a year ago, has become 74%. In Sweden, it has gone from 60% of support to 71%.
In two countries, however, the alternative to continue in the EU has lost support. In Finland, 71% at the end of last year has declined to 60%. And in Greece, severely punished by the crisis and the austerity measures imposed by the troika, the volume of supporters of permanence has dropped from 62% to 54%.
In Spain, the data collected by the DYM Institute reflect that the support to EU in a possible referendum is transversal and generalized. The advantage of supporters to remain in the European club is more than 50 points in all age brackets: it ranges between 54.6 points (56-65 years) and 76.4 of those over 76. Among the Young people (16-25 years), satisfaction with the Union brings 63 points to the idea of abandonment.
Within the great support existing in Spain, one can observe how the option of permanence in the EU presents a relative weakness between the individuals with lower income – the advantage in favor of the ‘remain’ among the citizens with fewer resources is 32, 6 points, 77.6 of those with medium-high incomes and 72.6 of those with higher incomes – and among those with lower education. Thus, among those with primary education, the rate in favor of permanence (the percentage of partisans less the volume of those who would opt out) is 45 points, for the 90 that register among those who have university studies of higher grade.